Rekt Capital analyst: Bitcoin has escaped the 'danger zone' post-halving

Following the halving event, Bitcoin often enters a 'danger zone' characterized by increased volatility. During the 2016 cycle, Bitcoin value dropped nearly 18% over the following three weeks.

The same thing happened during the current halving cycle but with only a 6.5% loss. However, soon after, the price increased by 15%, showing a strong breakout from the 'danger zone'.

At the time of writing at 5:35 a.m. today, May 15, Bitcoin is trading at $61,664, down 2% in the past 24 hours. Rekt Capital notes that the $60,000 support level is crucial to continue this uptrend, potentially helping the price return to the $68,000 mark.

'History suggests that means Bitcoin will no longer produce downside volatility below the current reaccumulation range. The Bitcoin correction period is probably over and the price will likely remain above $60,000.

While historical trends do not guarantee future results, the ability to bounce back from current support is a positive sign for Bitcoin's trajectory.

Next Bitcoin price prediction?

The main focus this week will be the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will be released on Wednesday. CPI and core CPI forecasts are 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively.

The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) target is 2% and current data shows inflation remains persistent. Interest rates are likely to remain high for longer unless inflation improves.

According to BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, rising government debt and adjustments by the US Fed and Treasury are making alternative investments like Bitcoin more attractive. He predicts that Bitcoin price will exceed $60,000 and move into a period of relative stability between $60,000 and $70,000 in August.

According to Standard Chartered, the upcoming US presidential election with a potential victory for Donald Trump will benefit the value of Bitcoin. Additionally, a shift in US fiscal and monetary policy is seen as potentially favorable for Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered expects BTC prices to reach $150,000 by year-end and $200,000 by 2025.

Marvin Fry

Update 15 May 2024