Elon Musk's SpaceX Era Could Cause Aviation Disasters

According to researchers, space debris is increasingly posing a danger to flights, not only civil but also military. Although there have been no recorded cases of space debris hitting an aircraft, if this happened, the consequences would be very serious.

Missile launches are happening more and more frequently.

Researchers analyzed global flight data to model the distribution of aircraft in the sky, then compared it to records of uncontrolled missile re-entries. They found that mass deployments of satellites, like SpaceX's Starlink, increase the likelihood of collisions between aircraft and objects from space.

According to the study, densely populated areas, especially around major airports, have a 0.8% chance of being affected by an uncontrolled reentry each year. This rate increases to 26% in more congested airspace areas, such as the northeastern United States, northern Europe, and major cities in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Aerospace Corporation estimates that the chance of a fatal collision between an aircraft and a falling object from space in 2021 is nearly 1 in 100,000. Even a small piece of a rocket or satellite could cause a serious accident, increasing the pressure on passenger safety. An object weighing just 1 gram could cause damage if it collides with a windshield or an engine.

Researchers have been tracking air traffic density around the world. 

As the likelihood of collisions increases, airspace may be closed, leading to congestion and flight delays or cancellations. The researchers stress that national authorities face a major challenge: whether to close airspace, with the attendant safety and economic implications.

Tracking the trajectory of uncontrolled objects is difficult, so large areas of airspace have to be closed as a precaution. A prime example is the Long March 5B rocket body that fell back into the Indian Ocean in 2022.

The researchers recommend that satellite launch companies invest in controlled rocket re-entry technology. Currently, less than 35 percent of launches use this technology, leaving the safety burden on the aviation industry. Improving safety both in and out of the atmosphere will require collaboration between government agencies and private companies. They emphasize that we don't have to wait for a disaster to act.

Just a 1 gram fragment can have serious consequences for flights.

'There are currently more than 2,300 rocket bodies in orbit that will re-enter in an uncontrolled manner. Airspace management agencies will face this challenge for decades to come,' the researchers warned.

David Pac

Update 12 February 2025